Clinical Trial Intelligence

Oncology Phase III Endpoint Architecture, 2024–2026

30 May 2026

Across 890 Phase III oncology trial records, endpoint selection is dominated by time-to-event efficacy measures. Progression-free survival and related variants form the largest primary endpoint family, while overall survival is used more selectively as a dominant or co-primary endpoint in high-mortality and high-consequence comparative settings.

43.7%
PFS-family dominant primary endpoints
19.8%
OS-family dominant primary endpoints
22.9%
Trials listing two or more primary endpoints

What primary endpoints are being used?

PFS-family endpoints are the largest dominant primary endpoint family, appearing in 389/890 trials (43.7%). OS is dominant in 176/890 trials (19.8%), while DFS/EFS/iDFS/RFS/MFS-style event endpoints account for 154/890 trials (17.3%).

Dominant primary endpoint family
PFS / rPFS / bPFS / PFS243.7%
Overall survival19.8%
DFS / EFS / iDFS / RFS / MFS17.3%
Response / CR / ORR / pCR / MRD9.1%
Safety / tolerability / PK / feasibility4.4%
Other or composite clinical endpoints5.7%
Endpoint family assigned from primary endpoint wording
Interpretation

Phase III oncology endpoint design is primarily built around survival, progression, and recurrence rather than response alone. Response-based primary endpoints remain a minority and appear mainly where response depth, pathological clearance, or residual disease status is clinically central.

When are endpoint families being used?

PFS remains the most frequent dominant primary endpoint family across all three authorization years: 276/610 trials in 2024 (45.2%), 81/197 trials in 2025 (41.1%), and 32/83 trials in 2026 (38.6%). OS was dominant in 120/610 trials in 2024, 43/197 in 2025, and 13/83 in 2026.

Dominant primary endpoint by authorization year
Year PFS family OS DFS/EFS family Response / other
202445.2%19.7%16.9%18.2%
202541.1%21.8%19.3%17.8%
202638.6%15.7%15.7%30.1%
Year based on first CTIS authorization date
Interpretation

The observed year pattern does not show OS replacing PFS as the default Phase III oncology primary endpoint. Instead, the hierarchy remains stable: PFS for earlier efficacy readout, OS for selected high-stakes settings, and DFS/EFS-family endpoints for curative-intent disease.

Which endpoints appear in which oncology settings?

Endpoint choice tracks clinical setting. Among advanced or metastatic solid tumor records, 314/548 trials (57.3%) used PFS-family endpoints as the dominant primary endpoint. In adjuvant, neoadjuvant, or curative-intent settings, 111/184 trials (60.3%) used DFS/EFS/iDFS/RFS, pCR, or event-based curative endpoints.

Endpoint family by clinical setting
Advanced / metastatic solid tumors
57.3%
PFS-family dominant primary endpoints
Adjuvant / neoadjuvant / curative-intent
60.3%
DFS/EFS, pCR, or curative event endpoints
Hematologic malignancies
62.4%
PFS/EFS, ORR/CR, or MRD-style primary/co-primary endpoints
Glioma / glioblastoma
55.6%
OS as dominant primary endpoint family
Clinical setting inferred from disease and endpoint wording
Interpretation

Endpoint selection reflects the clinical question being tested: controlling progression in measurable metastatic disease, preventing recurrence in curative-intent trials, demonstrating survival in near-term mortality settings, and capturing depth of response in hematologic or neoadjuvant disease.

What endpoints are used as secondary evidence?

The secondary endpoint layer is broader than the primary endpoint layer. OS appears as secondary evidence in 654/890 trials (73.5%), safety or adverse-event endpoints in 617/890 (69.3%), response/depth-of-response endpoints in 566/890 (63.6%), and HRQoL or PRO endpoints in 321/890 (36.1%).

Secondary endpoint families
Overall survival
73.5%
Safety / AE
69.3%
ORR / CR / DOR
63.6%
Imaging / review
54.2%
HRQoL / PRO
36.1%
Biomarker / MRD
32.5%
PK / PD / ADA
21.1%
Secondary endpoint families can overlap within the same trial
Interpretation

OS remains embedded in most evidentiary packages even when it is not the primary endpoint. Safety, response, imaging review, HRQoL, biomarkers, and PK/PD endpoints provide the supporting context around the primary efficacy claim.

How often do Phase III oncology trials use co-primary endpoints?

Most trials remain single-primary, but co-primary designs are structurally important: 686/890 trials (77.1%) listed one primary endpoint, 148/890 trials (16.6%) listed two, and 56/890 trials (6.3%) listed three or more.

Primary endpoint count per trial
77.1%
Single primary endpoint
16.6%
Two primary endpoints
6.3%
Three or more primary endpoints
Primary endpoint complexity based on listed primary endpoint objects
Interpretation

Co-primary structures appear where one endpoint does not fully capture the trial question: OS plus PFS in advanced disease, EFS plus pCR in neoadjuvant breast cancer, or response plus PFS/MRD in hematologic malignancies.

Endpoint definitions used in the report

Endpoint abbreviations were normalized from trial wording. Definitions below reflect the common measurement patterns observed across the analyzed Phase III oncology records, including RECIST 1.1, Lugano, RANO, IMWG, iwCLL, STEEP 2.0, investigator assessment, blinded independent central review, and CTCAE safety grading.

Endpoint abbreviation definitions
PFS — progression-free survival; time from randomization or treatment start to disease progression or death, commonly by RECIST 1.1, Lugano, RANO, IMWG, investigator assessment, or blinded independent central review.
rPFS / bPFS / PFS2 — radiographic, biochemical, or second progression-free survival variants; progression may be imaging-based, PSA/biochemical, or based on later treatment sequence.
OS — overall survival; time from randomization, registration, diagnosis, or treatment start to death from any cause, with living patients censored at last follow-up.
DFS / iDFS / EFS / RFS / MFS — disease-free, invasive disease-free, event-free, relapse-free, or metastasis-free survival; time-to-event endpoints capturing recurrence, invasive disease, progression, metastasis, second malignancy, or death depending on protocol wording.
ORR / OR / CR / CRR / pCR — objective response, complete response, complete response rate, or pathological complete response; response endpoints generally capture complete or partial response by disease-specific criteria, or absence of invasive disease after neoadjuvant therapy.
DOR / DCR / CBR — duration of response, disease control rate, or clinical benefit rate; used to describe response durability or the proportion with response or stable disease.
MRD / uMRD — minimal residual disease or undetectable minimal residual disease; mainly used in hematologic malignancy trials to capture depth of disease clearance.
HRQoL / PRO — health-related quality of life or patient-reported outcome; commonly assessed through instruments such as EORTC QLQ-C30, EQ-5D-5L, FACT-B, FACT-Lym, or disease-specific modules.
AE / TEAE / SAE — adverse event, treatment-emergent adverse event, or serious adverse event; safety endpoints commonly assess incidence, severity, discontinuation, seriousness, and grade 3 or higher toxicity, often using CTCAE.
PK / PD / ADA — pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics, or anti-drug antibodies; used to measure exposure, concentration-time parameters, biological activity, or immunogenicity.
Definitions normalized from endpoint wording across trial records
Interpretation

The same abbreviation can represent different operational definitions by disease. PFS in solid tumors is often RECIST-based, PFS in lymphoma is commonly Lugano-based, PFS in glioma may use RANO, and DFS/EFS endpoints in breast cancer frequently follow STEEP-style recurrence or invasive-event definitions.

Executive Interpretation

Endpoint selection in Phase III oncology is not random variation; it maps to clinical context. PFS is the broad default in measurable advanced disease, OS is selectively used when mortality is decisive and follow-up is feasible, DFS/EFS-family endpoints dominate curative-intent settings, and response/MRD endpoints cluster where tumor clearance or response depth carries major clinical meaning.

Clinical and regulatory context

The observed endpoint architecture suggests that Phase III oncology programs are increasingly multi-layered: the primary endpoint defines the confirmatory claim, while OS, safety, response, imaging review, HRQoL, biomarker, and PK/PD endpoints build the broader evidentiary package around that claim.